Trends and the Gender Gap in the Reporting of Sexual Initiation Among 15-Year-Olds: A Comparison of 33 European Countries.

Early sexual intercourse initiation has been associated with immediate and long-term risks, which makes the study of trends in sexual initiation an important topic for policy makers. This study investigated trends over time in reported sexual initiation among 15-year-olds across 33 countries between 2010-2018. In addition, we examined if there were cross-country differences in the gender gap in reported sexual initiation in 2018, and whether these could be attributed to gender inequality and gender role attitudes. To answer these questions, we combined individual-level data from the international Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study collected in 2010 (N = 57,656), 2014 (N = 56,745) and 2018 (N = 55,127) with country-level data on gender inequality and gender role attitudes. We found a decrease over time in early sexual initiation in most countries, but also cross-country differences in these trends. More boys than girls reported sexual initiation in 2018. This gender gap also varied across countries and slightly decreased over time. In countries with less progressive gender role attitudes and more gender inequality, fewer girls reported early sexual initiation, resulting in a larger gender gap in these countries. To conclude, policy makers, healthcare providers and educators should focus on changing stereotypical gender norms.

A focus on adolescent substance use in Europe, central Asia and Canada. Health Behaviour in School-aged Children international report from the 2021/2022 survey. Volume 3

The Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study is a large school-based survey carried out every four years in collaboration with the WHO Regional Office for Europe. HBSC data are used at national/regional and international levels to gain new insights into adolescent health and well-being, understand the social determinants of health and inform policy and practice to improve young people’s lives. The 2021/2022 HBSC survey data are accompanied by a series of volumes that summarize the key findings around specific health topics. This report, Volume 3 in the series, focuses on adolescent substance use, using the unique HBSC evidence on adolescents aged 11, 13 and 15 years across 44 countries and regions in Europe, central Asia and Canada. It describes the status of adolescent substance use (cigarette smoking, electronic cigarette use, alcohol consumption, drunkenness and cannabis use), the role of gender, age and social inequality, and how adolescent substance use has changed over time. Findings from the 2021/2022 HBSC survey provide an important evidence benchmark for current research, intervention and policy-planning.

Context v. algorithm: evidence that a transdiagnostic framework of contextual clinical characterization is of more clinical value than categorical diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: A transdiagnostic and contextual framework of 'clinical characterization', combining clinical, psychopathological, sociodemographic, etiological, and other personal contextual data, may add clinical value over and above categorical algorithm-based diagnosis. METHODS: Prediction of need for care and health care outcomes was examined prospectively as a function of the contextual clinical characterization diagnostic framework in a prospective general population cohort (n = 6646 at baseline), interviewed four times between 2007 and 2018 (NEMESIS-2). Measures of need, service use, and use of medication were predicted as a function of any of 13 DSM-IV diagnoses, both separately and in combination with clinical characterization across multiple domains: social circumstances/demographics, symptom dimensions, physical health, clinical/etiological factors, staging, and polygenic risk scores (PRS). Effect sizes were expressed as population attributable fractions. RESULTS: Any prediction of DSM-diagnosis in relation to need and outcome in separate models was entirely reducible to components of contextual clinical characterization in joint models, particularly the component of transdiagnostic symptom dimensions (a simple score of the number of anxiety, depression, mania, and psychosis symptoms) and staging (subthreshold, incidence, persistence), and to a lesser degree clinical factors (early adversity, family history, suicidality, slowness at interview, neuroticism, and extraversion), and sociodemographic factors. Clinical characterization components in combination predicted more than any component in isolation. PRS did not meaningfully contribute to any clinical characterization model. CONCLUSION: A transdiagnostic framework of contextual clinical characterization is of more value to patients than a categorical system of algorithmic ordering of psychopathology.

Prevalence and trends of common mental disorders from 2007-2009 to 2019-2022: results from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Studies (NEMESIS), including comparison of prevalence rates before vs. during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Up-to-date information on the prevalence and trends of common mental disorders is relevant to health care policy and planning, owing to the high burden associated with these disorders. In the first wave of the third Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS-3), a nationally representative sample was interviewed face-to-face from November 2019 to March 2022 (6,194 subjects; 1,576 interviewed before and 4,618 during the COVID-19 pandemic; age range: 18-75 years). A slightly modified version of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 was used to assess DSM-IV and DSM-5 diagnoses. Trends in 12-month prevalence rates of DSM-IV mental disorders were examined by comparing these rates between NEMESIS-3 and NEMESIS-2 (6,646 subjects; age range: 18-64 years; interviewed from November 2007 to July 2009). Lifetime DSM-5 prevalence estimates in NEMESIS-3 were 28.6% for anxiety disorders, 27.6% for mood disorders, 16.7% for substance use disorders, and 3.6% for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. Over the last 12 months, prevalence rates were 15.2%, 9.8%, 7.1%, and 3.2%, respectively. No differences in 12-month prevalence rates before vs. during the COVID-19 pandemic were found (26.7% pre-pandemic vs. 25.7% during the pandemic), even after controlling for differences in socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents interviewed in these two periods. This was the case for all four disorder categories. From 2007-2009 to 2019-2022, the 12-month prevalence rate of any DSM-IV disorder significantly increased from 17.4% to 26.1%. A stronger increase in prevalence was found for students, younger adults (18-34 years) and city dwellers. These data suggest that the prevalence of mental disorders has increased in the past decade, but this is not explained by the COVID-19 pandemic. The already high mental disorder risk of young adults has particularly further increased in recent years.

Age- and sex-specific associations between risk scores for schizophrenia and self-reported health in the general population.

PURPOSE: The health correlates of polygenic risk (PRS-SCZ) and exposome (ES-SCZ) scores for schizophrenia may vary depending on age and sex. We aimed to examine age- and sex-specific associations of PRS-SCZ and ES-SCZ with self-reported health in the general population. METHODS: Participants were from the population-based Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2 (NEMESIS-2). Mental and physical health were measured with the 36-item Short Form Survey 4 times between 2007 and 2018. The PRS-SCZ and ES-SCZ were respectively calculated from common genetic variants and exposures (cannabis use, winter birth, hearing impairment, and five childhood adversity categories). Moderation by age and sex was examined in linear mixed models. RESULTS: For PRS-SCZ and ES-SCZ analyses, we included 3099 and 6264 participants, respectively (age range 18-65 years; 55.7-56.1% female). Age and sex did not interact with PRS-SCZ. Age moderated the association between ES-SCZ and mental (interaction: p = 0.02) and physical health (p = 0.0007): at age 18, + 1.00 of ES-SCZ was associated with - 0.10 of mental health and - 0.08 of physical health, whereas at age 65, it was associated with - 0.21 and - 0.23, respectively (all units in standard deviations). Sex moderated the association between ES-SCZ and physical health (p < .0001): + 1.00 of ES-SCZ was associated with - 0.19 of physical health among female and - 0.11 among male individuals. CONCLUSION: There were larger associations between higher ES-SCZ and poorer health among female and older individuals. Accounting for these interactions may increase ES-SCZ precision and help uncover populational determinants of environmental influences on health.

Prevalence, incidence, and persistence of psychotic experiences in the general population: results of a 9-year follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Psychotic experiences (PEs) frequently occur and are associated with a range of negative health outcomes. Prospective studies on PEs are scarce, and to date no study investigated PE prevalence, incidence, persistence, their risk indicators, and psychiatric comorbidity, in one dataset. Furthermore, most studies are based on self-report, and it is unclear how this compares to clinical interviews. METHODS: Data are used from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2 (NEMESIS-2), a psychiatric cohort study among a representative sample of adults (baseline characteristics: N = 6646; 49.6% female; 18-64 years). Results are presented for self-reported and clinically validated PEs. Associations are assessed for mental disorders, socio-demographic, vulnerability, physical health, and substance use factors. RESULTS: Based on self-report, at baseline 16.5% of respondents had at least one PE in their lifetime, of those, 30.1% also reported a PE at 3-year follow-up. 4.8% had a first PE at 3-year follow up. The 3-year prevalence of PE was associated with almost all studied risk indicators. Generally, the strongest associations were found for mental health disorders. Prevalence and incidence rates were two to three times higher in self-report than in clinical interview but results on associated factors were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Validated prevalence and incidence estimates of PE are substantially lower than self-reported figures but results on associated factors were similar. Therefore, future studies on associations of PEs can rely on relatively inexpensive self-reports of PEs. The associations between PE and mental disorders underline the importance of assessment of PE in general practice.

Bidirectional relationships between cannabis use, anxiety and depressive symptoms in the mediation of the association with psychotic experience: further support for an affective pathway to psychosis.

BACKGROUND: Empirical evidence suggests that people use cannabis to ameliorate anxiety and depressive symptoms, yet cannabis also acutely worsens psychosis and affective symptoms. However, the temporal relationship between cannabis use, anxiety and depressive symptoms and psychotic experiences (PE) in longitudinal studies is unclear. This may be informed by examination of mutually mediating roles of cannabis, anxiety and depressive symptoms in the emergence of PE. METHODS: Data were derived from the second longitudinal Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study. Mediation analysis was performed to examine the relationship between cannabis use, anxiety/depressive symptoms and PE, using KHB logit in STATA while adjusting for age, sex and education status. RESULTS: Cannabis use was found to mediate the relationship between preceding anxiety, depressive symptoms and later PE incidence, but the indirect contribution of cannabis use was small (for anxiety: % of total effect attributable to cannabis use = 1.00%; for depression: % of total effect attributable to cannabis use = 1.4%). Interestingly, anxiety and depressive symptoms were found to mediate the relationship between preceding cannabis use and later PE incidence to a greater degree (% of total effect attributable to anxiety = 17%; % of total effect attributable to depression = 37%). CONCLUSION: This first longitudinal cohort study examining the mediational relationship between cannabis use, anxiety/depressive symptoms and PE, shows that there is a bidirectional relationship between cannabis use, anxiety/depressive symptoms and PE. However, the contribution of anxiety/depressive symptoms as a mediator was greater than that of cannabis.

The Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-3 (NEMESIS-3): Objectives, methods and baseline characteristics of the sample.

OBJECTIVES: NEMESIS-3 (Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-3) is a psychiatric epidemiological cohort study of the Dutch general population that replicates and expands on two previous NEMESIS-studies conducted in 1996-1999 and 2007-2018 respectively. The main aims of NEMESIS-3 are to provide up-to-date information on the prevalence, incidence, course and consequences of mental disorders, their risk indicators, and to study the relevant time trends. This paper gives an overview of the objectives and methods of NEMESIS-3, especially of the recently completed first wave, and describes the sample characteristics. METHODS: NEMESIS-3 is based on a multistage, stratified random sampling of individuals aged 18-75 years. Face-to-face interviews were laptop computer-assisted and held at the respondent's home. A slightly modified Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) version 3.0 was used to assess both Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-IV (DSM-IV) and DSM-5 mental disorders. Two follow-up waves are planned three and six years after baseline. RESULTS: In the first wave, performed from November 2019 to March 2022, 6194 individuals were interviewed: 1576 respondents before and 4618 respondents during the COVID-19 pandemic. The average interview duration was 91 min and the response rate was 54.6%. The sample consisted of 50.4% women and had a mean age of 47.9 years. The sample was reasonable nationally representative, although some sociodemographic groups were somewhat underrepresented. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the COVID-19 restrictions, we were able to build a large and comprehensive dataset of good quality, permitting us to investigate the latest trends in mental health status, various new topics related to mental health, and the extent to which the pandemic has had an effect on the population's mental health.

Identification of Latent Alcohol Use Groups and Transitions over Time Using a 9-Year Follow-Up Study in the Adult General Population.

INTRODUCTION: Studies investigating latent alcohol use groups and transitions of these groups over time are scarce, while such knowledge could facilitate efficient use of screening and preventive interventions for groups with a high risk of problematic alcohol use. Therefore, the present study examines the characteristics, transitions, and long-term stability of adult alcohol use groups and explores some of the possible predictors of the transitions. METHODS: Data were used from the baseline, 3-, 6-, and 9-year follow-up waves of the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2 (NEMESIS-2), a representative study of Dutch adults aged 18-64 at baseline (N = 6,646; number of data points: 20,574). Alcohol consumption, alcohol use disorder (AUD), and mental disorders were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0. Latent Markov Modelling was used to identify latent groups based on high average alcohol consumption (HAAC) and AUD and to determine transition patterns of people between groups over time (stayers vs. movers). RESULTS: The best fitting model resulted in four latent groups: one nonproblematic group (91%): no HAAC, no AUD; and three problematic alcohol use groups (9%): HAAC, no AUD (5%); no HAAC, often AUD (3%); and HAAC and AUD (1%). HAAC, no AUD was associated with a high mean age (55 years) and low educational level (41%), and no HAAC, often AUD with high proportions of males (78%) and people with high educational level (46%). Eighty-seven percent of all respondents - mostly people with no HAAC, no AUD - stayed in their original group during the whole 9-year period. Among movers, people in a problematic alcohol use group (HAAC and/or AUD) mostly transitioned to another problematic alcohol use group and not to the nonproblematic alcohol use group (no HAAC, no AUD). Explorative analyses suggested that lack of physical activity possibly plays a role in transitions both from and to problematic alcohol use groups over time. CONCLUSION: The detection of three problematic alcohol use groups - with transitions mostly between the different problematic alcohol use groups and not to the group without alcohol problems - points to the need to explicitly address both alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems (AUD criteria) in screening measures and interventions in order not to miss and to adequately treat all problematic alcohol users. Moreover, explorative findings suggest that prevention measures should also include physical activity.

How chronic are depressive and anxiety disorders? 9-year general population study using narrow and broad course outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Existing studies on disease course usually apply relatively short follow-up periods and narrow definitions of disease course resulting in too optimistic views on disease prognosis. This study explores the relevance of using a longer and broader (cross-disorder) perspective. METHODS: Respondents with a 12-month disorder at baseline and available at 3-, 6- and 9-year follow-up were selected (major depressive disorder, MDD: n = 208; anxiety disorder: n = 220) from a general population study (N = 6646). DSM-IV disorders were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Disease course was described using a short and narrow perspective (i.e., 3-year follow-up, and considering presence of the index disorder only) and a long and broad perspective (9-year follow-up, and considering presence of any mood, anxiety or substance use disorder as outcome). RESULTS: The recovery rates of both MDD and anxiety disorder reduced by half when the perspective switched from short and narrow (MDD: 74.0 %; anxiety disorder: 79.5 %) to long and broad (35.6 % and 40.0 % respectively). At 9-year follow-up, the rates of a persistent disorder (a disorder at each follow-up assessment) tripled when the perspective switched from narrow to broad (MDD: from 4.8 % to 13.9 %; anxiety disorder: from 4.5 % to 15.5 %). LIMITATIONS: The findings are not generalizable to the most severe depressed and anxious patients. CONCLUSIONS: Most people with MDD or anxiety disorder in the general population have a rather favourable prognosis when a narrow perspective is applied, but an unfavourable prognosis when a long-term and broad perspective is applied. Consequently, MDD and anxiety disorder should not merely be perceived as episodic disorders, and require longer-term disease monitoring and management.

Outdoor smoking as a nuisance to non-smokers: The case for smoke-free outdoor public spaces in dense urban areas.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the growing number of smoke-free spaces, many non-smokers continue to be involuntarily exposed to secondhand smoke outdoors and on public streets. Both theory and research suggest that people living in densely populated urban areas are more likely to smoke than those living in less densely populated areas. Consequently, non-smokers in densely populated urban areas might be more likely to be exposed and feel annoyed by secondhand smoke outdoors. We investigated whether the extent to which non-smokers feel annoyed by secondhand smoke exposure in outdoor public spaces is related to urban population density. METHODS: We used cross-sectional survey data from the Netherlands 'Module Substance Use' survey (2020 data, n=9375). This is a nationally representative sample of the adult population in the Netherlands. Using logistic regression models, we investigated whether urban population density predicts both smoking and non-smokers' annoyance to secondhand smoke exposure outdoors. RESULTS: We found that smoking rates were associated with urban population density. In the Netherlands, people living in extremely population-dense urban areas were more likely to smoke than those living in non-urban areas (AOR=1.59; 95% CI: 1.25-2.02, p<0.001). Feeling annoyed by secondhand smoke outdoors was also associated with urban population density: non-smokers living in extremely population-dense urban areas were more likely to be annoyed than respondents living in non-urban areas (AOR=1.65; 95% CI: 1.34-2.02, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: These cross-sectional data highlight the importance of comprehensive local tobacco control policy programs that include creating smoke-free outdoor public spaces. This need for such smoke-free outdoor public spaces might be particularly strong in densely populated areas.

Evidence, and replication thereof, that molecular-genetic and environmental risks for psychosis impact through an affective pathway.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that environmental and genetic risk factors for schizophrenia spectrum disorders are transdiagnostic and mediated in part through a generic pathway of affective dysregulation. METHODS: We analysed to what degree the impact of schizophrenia polygenic risk (PRS-SZ) and childhood adversity (CA) on psychosis outcomes was contingent on co-presence of affective dysregulation, defined as significant depressive symptoms, in (i) NEMESIS-2 (n = 6646), a representative general population sample, interviewed four times over nine years and (ii) EUGEI (n = 4068) a sample of patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorder, the siblings of these patients and controls. RESULTS: The impact of PRS-SZ on psychosis showed significant dependence on co-presence of affective dysregulation in NEMESIS-2 [relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI): 1.01, p = 0.037] and in EUGEI (RERI = 3.39, p = 0.048). This was particularly evident for delusional ideation (NEMESIS-2: RERI = 1.74, p = 0.003; EUGEI: RERI = 4.16, p = 0.019) and not for hallucinatory experiences (NEMESIS-2: RERI = 0.65, p = 0.284; EUGEI: -0.37, p = 0.547). A similar and stronger pattern of results was evident for CA (RERI delusions and hallucinations: NEMESIS-2: 3.02, p < 0.001; EUGEI: 6.44, p < 0.001; RERI delusional ideation: NEMESIS-2: 3.79, p < 0.001; EUGEI: 5.43, p = 0.001; RERI hallucinatory experiences: NEMESIS-2: 2.46, p < 0.001; EUGEI: 0.54, p = 0.465). CONCLUSIONS: The results, and internal replication, suggest that the effects of known genetic and non-genetic risk factors for psychosis are mediated in part through an affective pathway, from which early states of delusional meaning may arise.

What makes the psychosis 'clinical high risk' state risky: psychosis itself or the co-presence of a non-psychotic disorder?

AIMS: Although attenuated psychotic symptoms in the psychosis clinical high-risk state (CHR-P) almost always occur in the context of a non-psychotic disorder (NPD), NPD is considered an undesired 'comorbidity' epiphenomenon rather than an integral part of CHR-P itself. Prospective work, however, indicates that much more of the clinical psychosis incidence is attributable to prior mood and drug use disorders than to psychosis clinical high-risk states per se. In order to examine this conundrum, we analysed to what degree the 'risk' in CHR-P is indexed by co-present NPD rather than attenuated psychosis per se. METHODS: We examined the incidence of early psychotic experiences (PE) with and without NPD (mood disorders, anxiety disorders, alcohol/drug use disorders), in a prospective general population cohort (n = 6123 at risk of incident PE at baseline). Four interview waves were conducted between 2007 and 2018 (NEMESIS-2). The incidence of PE, alone (PE-only) or with NPD (PE + NPD) was calculated, as were differential associations with schizophrenia polygenic risk score (PRS-Sz), environmental, demographical, clinical and cognitive factors. RESULTS: The incidence of PE + NPD (0.37%) was lower than the incidence of PE-only (1.04%), representing around a third of the total yearly incidence of PE. Incident PE + NPD was, in comparison with PE-only, differentially characterised by poor functioning, environmental risks, PRS-Sz, positive family history, prescription of antipsychotic medication and (mental) health service use. CONCLUSIONS: The risk in 'clinical high risk' states is mediated not by attenuated psychosis per se but specifically the combination of attenuated psychosis and NPD. CHR-P/APS research should be reconceptualised from a focus on attenuated psychotic symptoms with exclusion of non-psychotic DSM-disorders, as the 'pure' representation of a supposedly homotypic psychosis risk state, towards a focus on poor-outcome NPDs, characterised by a degree of psychosis admixture, on the pathway to psychotic disorder outcomes.

The Bidirectional Relationship Between Debts and Common Mental Disorders: Results of a longitudinal Population-Based Study.

Researchers and politicians have regularly expressed their worries about a widening of socioeconomic inequalities in physical and mental health. Debts have been relatively understudied as a specific aspect of socioeconomic disadvantage contributing to poor mental health. This study examines the bidirectional association between debts and common mental disorders (CMDs) in the adult population of the Netherlands. Data were obtained from the second ('baseline') and third (3-year follow-up) wave of the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2, a representative cohort of adults. Questions were asked about debts and difficulty in repaying debts in the past 12 months. The answers were combined into one variable: no debts, easy, difficult, and very difficult to pay back debts. Twelve-month CMDs were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview version 3.0. Increasing levels of difficulty in repaying debts predicted onset of CMD at follow-up in those without 12-month CMD at baseline, and persistence of CMD at follow-up in those with 12-month CMD at baseline. Conversely, CMD was not linked to onset of debts at follow-up in those without 12-month debts at baseline, but was associated with persistence of difficulty to pay back debts at follow-up in those with 12-month debts at baseline. These associations remained significant after adjustment for baseline sociodemographic variables, negative life events and physical health. Health professionals and debt counsellors should pay more attention to patients' debts and clients' mental health respectively in order to refer those with financial or mental health problems to the appropriate services.

Schizophrenia and the Environment: Within-Person Analyses May be Required to Yield Evidence of Unconfounded and Causal Association-The Example of Cannabis and Psychosis.

Hypotheses about the link between cannabis use and psychosis apply to the within-person level but have been tested mostly at the between-person level. We used a within-person design, in which a person serves as his own control, thus removing the need to consider confounding by any fixed (genetic and nongenetic) characteristic to study the prospective association between cannabis use and the incidence of attenuated psychotic experiences, and vice versa, adjusted for time-varying confounders. We combined 2 general population cohorts (at baseline: Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology Study, n = 1395; Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2, n = 6603), which applied a similar methodology to study cannabis use and attenuated psychotic experiences with repeated interviews (T0, T1, T2, and T3) over a period of approximately 10 years. The Hausman test was significant for the adjusted models, indicating the validity of the fixed-effects model. In the adjusted fixed-effects model, prior cannabis use was associated with psychotic experiences (aOR = 7.03, 95% CI: 2.39, 20.69), whereas prior psychotic experiences were not associated with cannabis use (aOR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.21, 1.71). Longitudinal studies applying random-effects models to study associations between risk factors and mental health outcomes, as well as reverse causality, may not yield precise estimates. Cannabis likely impacts causally on psychosis but not the other way round.

Longitudinal bidirectional associations between internalizing mental disorders and cardiometabolic disorders in the general adult population.

PURPOSE: This prospective population-based study investigated whether having any internalizing mental disorder (INT) was associated with the presence and onset of any cardiometabolic disorder (CM) at 3-year follow-up; and vice versa. Furthermore, we examined whether observed associations differed when using longer time intervals of respectively 6 and 9 years. METHODS: Data were used from the four waves (baseline and 3-, 6- and 9-year follow-up) of the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2, a prospective study of a representative cohort of adults. At each wave, the presence and first onset of INT (i.e. any mood or anxiety disorder) were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0; the presence and onset of CM (i.e. hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, and stroke) were based on self-report. Multilevel logistic autoregressive models were controlled for previous-wave INT and CM, respectively, and sociodemographic, clinical, and lifestyle covariates. RESULTS: Having any INT predicted both the presence (OR 1.28, p = 0.029) and the onset (OR 1.46, p = 0.003) of any CM at the next wave (3-year intervals). Having any CM was not significantly related to the presence of any INT at 3-year follow-up, while its association with the first onset of any INT reached borderline significance (OR 1.64, p = 0.06), but only when examining 6-year intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that INTs increase the risk of both the presence and the onset of CMs in the short term, while CMs may increase the likelihood of the first onset of INTs in the longer term. Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms underlying the observed associations.

The jumping to conclusions reasoning bias as a cognitive factor contributing to psychosis progression and persistence: findings from NEMESIS-2.

BACKGROUND: Contemporary models of psychosis implicate the importance of affective dysregulation and cognitive factors (e.g. biases and schemas) in the development and maintenance of psychotic symptoms, but studies testing proposed mechanisms remain limited. This study, uniquely using a prospective design, investigated whether the jumping to conclusions (JTC) reasoning bias contributes to psychosis progression and persistence. METHODS: Data were derived from the second Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS-2). The Composite International Diagnostic Interview and an add-on instrument were used to assess affective dysregulation (i.e. depression, anxiety and mania) and psychotic experiences (PEs), respectively. The beads task was used to assess JTC bias. Time series analyses were conducted using data from T1 and T2 (N = 8666), excluding individuals who reported high psychosis levels at T0. RESULTS: Although the prospective design resulted in low statistical power, the findings suggest that, compared to those without symptoms, individuals with lifetime affective dysregulation were more likely to progress from low/moderate psychosis levels (state of 'aberrant salience', one or two PEs) at T1 to high psychosis levels ('frank psychosis', three or more PEs or psychosis-related help-seeking behaviour) at T2 if the JTC bias was present [adj. relative risk ratio (RRR): 3.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8-18.6, p = 0.101]. Similarly, the JTC bias contributed to the persistence of high psychosis levels (adj. RRR: 12.7, 95% CI 0.7-239.6, p = 0.091). CONCLUSIONS: We found some evidence that the JTC bias may contribute to psychosis progression and persistence in individuals with affective dysregulation. However, well-powered prospective studies are needed to replicate these findings.

Duration of anxiety disorder and its associated risk indicators: Results of a longitudinal study of the general population.

BACKGROUND: Data on episode duration of anxiety disorders are required for informing patients and for disease management, but such data from population studies are lacking. METHODS: Three-year longitudinal data were used from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2, a psychiatric epidemiological cohort study among the general adult population (N = 6646). Respondents with a new (first or recurrent) anxiety disorder were selected (n = 158). DSM-IV diagnoses were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview; the Life Chart Interview assessed episode duration and recovery rates. RESULTS: Among those with anxiety disorder, median episode duration was 7.5 months and mean duration was 15.2 months. 38.8% had not recovered at 12 months and 30.1% not at 36 months. Longer duration was associated with older age, not having a paid job, higher neuroticism, more physical disorders, and worse physical functioning. CONCLUSIONS: Also, in the general population, anxiety disorder has a rather chronic course. After 12 months the cumulative recovery rate flattened. To prevent and manage chronicity, timely treatment, and chronic disease management are required. The risk indicators found may help to identify individuals with an anxiety disorder at risk for chronicity.

Evidence for an interrelated cluster of Hallucinatory experiences in the general population: an incidence study.

BACKGROUND: Although hallucinations have been studied in terms of prevalence and its associations with psychopathology and functional impairment, very little is known about sensory modalities other than auditory (i.e. haptic, visual and olfactory), as well the incidence of hallucinations, factors predicting incidence and subsequent course. METHODS: We examined the incidence, course and risk factors of hallucinatory experiences across different modalities in two unique prospective general population cohorts in the same country using similar methodology and with three interview waves, one over the period 1996-1999 (NEMESIS) and one over the period 2007-2015 (NEMESIS-2). RESULTS: In NEMESIS-2, the yearly incidence of self-reported visual hallucinations was highest (0.33%), followed by haptic hallucinations (0.31%), auditory hallucinations (0.26%) and olfactory hallucinations (0.23%). Rates in NEMESIS-1 were similar (respectively: 0.35%, 0.26%, 0.23%, 0.22%). The incidence of clinician-confirmed hallucinations was approximately 60% of the self-reported rate. The persistence rate of incident hallucinations was around 20-30%, increasing to 40-50% for prevalent hallucinations. Incident hallucinations in one modality were very strongly associated with occurrence in another modality (median OR = 59) and all modalities were strongly associated with delusional ideation (median OR = 21). Modalities were approximately equally strongly associated with the presence of any mental disorder (median OR = 4), functioning, indicators of help-seeking and established environmental risk factors for psychotic disorder. CONCLUSIONS: Hallucinations across different modalities are a clinically relevant feature of non-psychotic disorders and need to be studied in relation to each other and in relation to delusional ideation, as all appear to have a common underlying mechanism.